But 2016 hasn't been all doom and gloom; there's also been good news in terms of the direction the industry is moving in. Tougher times mean that brands have to work harder, particularly as they'll be relying on more mature markets that are harder to persuade and more sensitive to perceptions of authenticity.
One of the more pleasing trends has been the return of "sports-luxe", the category that first came to light with Audemars Piguet's Royal Oak and Patek Philippe's Nautilus in the 1970's. This year saw the idea given fresh impetus through Vacheron Constantin's Overseas, Piaget's Polo S and Girard-Perregaux's Laureato, all of which derive from 70's originals. These are six swiss high-complication fake watches that somehow seem in tune with the times: sporty, well made, even luxurious, but also a little cool and understated – a sharp contrast with the flashiness that's prevailed over the last decade.
Both the Royal Oak and the Nautilus were designed by Gerald Genta, one of the first designers to win a reputation beyond the maisons that he worked for, a phenomenon that's starting to emerge in the watch world once again as design becomes the story. Already, we've become much more familiar with the likes of Davide Cerrato (previously of Tudor, now at Montblanc), Fabrizio Bounamassa Stigliani (Bulgari), Christian Selmoni (Vacheron Constantin), while we seen creative partnerships formed by Hublot (Italia Independent, Sang Bleu et al), Richard Mille (Cyril Kongo) and Rado (Konstantin Grcic).
This about more than just the surface aesthetics as north flag swiss copy watch brands are looking to establish a place within the wider art and design world, hence all those number of collaborations with designers and artists and engagement with events such Art Basel and the Design Weeks in London and Milan. Expect to hear more from the design ateliers and a little less from the watchmakers.
Don't imagine that the pure horology and the metiers d'art expertise that the industry has spent so long acquiring is about to be junked though, as there's enough long-sighted thinkers in the business to preserve that human capital. In any event we'll still be after haute horlogerie, the move to design is a tendency not a revolution.
The SIHH, Geneva's cheap replica watches fair opens its doors on the 16th and I expect to see developments on the design and materials front: more ceramic, more sapphire as a construction material, more of the sports-luxe theme, but, as always, amazing creativity and craftsmanship.
